AI lending boom: Upstart’s revenue hits $637m in 2024

Overview

Upstart Holdings delivered a strong Q4 2024 performance, achieving substantial revenue growth and near-GAAP profitability.

CEO Dave Girouard highlighted the company’s expanding AI-powered lending marketplace, with significant improvements in loan originations, conversion rates, and operating efficiency: “In Q4 of 2024, our business grew dramatically across all product categories, delivered Adjusted EBITDA at levels not seen since the first quarter of 2022, and came within a whisker of returning to GAAP profitability. We launched into 2025 with unparalleled energy and optimism for the future of Upstart AI lending and the mission we’re on together.”

Q4 2024 highlights:

Total revenue was on an upward trend, reaching the value of $219m (+56% YoY, +35% QoQ), driven by higher loan originations and stronger pricing power.
Transaction volume stood out with 245,663 loans totaling $2.1bn (+68% YoY, +33% QoQ), benefiting from wider adoption of AI-based credit models.
Conversion rate was 19.3%, up from 11.6% in Q4 2023, reflecting improved borrower approval efficiency.
GAAP net income (loss) recorded a value of ($2.8m), a significant improvement from ($42.4m) in Q4 2023, approaching breakeven.
Adjusted net income was $29.9m, reversing ($9.7m) loss in Q4 2023, demonstrating strong operational efficiency. Diluted adjusted EPS was $0.29 based on the weighted-average common shares outstanding during the quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA was on a strong upward trend, recording a value of $38.8m (vs. $0.6m in Q4 2023), with an 18% EBITDA margin (up from 0% in Q4 2023).
Contribution profit rose to $122m (+28% YoY), with a 61% contribution margin (vs. 63% in Q4 2023).

Full-Year 2024 performance:

Total revenue rose to $637m (+24% YoY), supported by AI-driven automation and lender network expansion.
Transaction volume stood out with 697,092 loans, totaling $5.9bn (+28% YoY), as more lenders adopted Upstart’s AI credit models.
Conversion rate was 16.5%, up from 9.7% in 2023.
GAAP net loss recorded a value of ($129m), narrowing from ($240m) in 2023, driven by cost reductions and improved unit economics. Accordingly, GAAP diluted EPS was ($1.44), and diluted adjusted EPS was ($0.20).
Adjusted EBITDA increased to a value of $10.6m, reversing ($17.2m) loss in 2023, reflecting disciplined expense management.
Contribution profit grew to $382m (+8% YoY), with a 60% margin (compared to 63% in 2023).

Upstart expects continued momentum in 2025, driven by loan volume growth, expanding lender partnerships, and AI-powered underwriting advancements. Total revenue is projected to reach $1bn, reflecting sustained AI adoption in consumer lending. Revenue from fees is forecasted at $920m, supported by higher pricing strategies and new lending partnerships. Net interest income is expected to total $80m, benefiting from a stable portfolio performance and improved capital efficiency. Meanwhile, GAAP net income is anticipated to reach at least breakeven, marking a significant step toward sustained profitability. Additionally, adjusted EBITDA margin is forecasted at 18%, underscoring Upstart’s operational efficiency improvements and disciplined expense management.

The announcement of the quarterly and annual results brought very good sentiment among investors on Wall Street, with UPST’s share price reaching an all-time high in the week of the report’s publication, followed by a slight correction. Thus, the share price ended the trading week with an appreciation of approximately +19%, thus further accentuating the annual growth, which exceeded the threshold of +210%.