Strong growth anchored in Obesity and GLP-1 momentum despite R&D headwinds for Novo Nordisk in Q2 2025

Overview

Novo Nordisk delivered a solid Q2 2025, supported by expanding demand for its GLP-1-based diabetes treatments and strong uptake of obesity care therapies. The company maintained robust profitability, while continuing to invest in R&D and manufacturing expansion. Management reiterated its strategic focus on innovation, supply resilience, and long-term value creation.

Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen, president and CEO commented: “While delivering 18% sales growth in the first half of 2025, we have lowered our full-year outlook due to lower growth expectations for our GLP-1 treatments in the second half of 2025. As a result, we are taking measures to sharpen our commercial execution further, and ensure efficiencies in our cost base while continuing to invest in future growth. With more than one billion people living with obesity globally, including more than 100 million living in the US, and only a few million on treatment, I am confident that under Mike Doustdar’s leadership, Novo Nordisk will maximise the significant growth opportunities, supported by a strong product portfolio and future pipeline.”

Q2 2025 vs. Q2 2024:

Net sales rose to DKK 76.9bn (+13% YoY), driven by strong GLP-1 and Wegovy sales, particularly in the U.S. and key international markets.
- Total GLP-1 sales were DKK 38.4bn (+4% YoY), a moderated growth due to supply constraints, despite high global demand, especially for Ozempic.
- Obesity care (Wegovy) sales were DKK 19.5bn (+60% YoY), with strong acceleration in sales driven by increased capacity and broader market rollout, especially in North America.
- Total Obesity care sales were DKK 20.4bn (+47% YoY), boosted by Wegovy’s success and heightened global awareness of medical weight management.
- Total Diabetes care sales were DKK 51.6bn (+3% YoY), with growth led by GLP-1 products, partly offset by continued decline in insulin segment. Operating profit for the Obesity and Diabetes care segment was DKK 32.9bn (+22% YoY), supported by higher volumes, operational efficiency, and strong pricing in key markets.
- Insulin portfolio sales declined slightly to DKK 12.1bn (-1% YoY), due to pricing pressures and lower volumes in several regions.
- Rare disease care sales were DKK 4.9bn (+24% YoY), with growth driven by expanded use of treatments for blood and endocrine disorders. Operating profit for the segment was DKK 518m (vs. DKK -1.05bn YoY), reflecting reversal of previous impairments and improved performance in new therapeutic areas.
- US Operations totaled DKK 43.0bn (+12% YoY), with strong contribution from GLP-1s and Wegovy, supported by increased prescriptions and improved fulfillment rates.
- International Operations also increased to DKK 33.9bn (+14% YoY), with broad-based growth across EMEA and Latin America, driven by increased access to innovative therapies.
- Region China Operations decreased to DKK 4.3bn (-14% YoY), mainly due to lower insulin sales and local pricing dynamics.
Gross profit increased to DKK 64.0bn (+11% YoY), supported by higher product volumes, partially offset by product mix and increased production costs.
Gross margin was 83.3% (vs. 84.9% YoY), slight decline due to higher proportion of lower-margin products and increased manufacturing input costs.
Operating profit (EBIT) grew to DKK 33.4bn (+29% YoY), benefited from top-line growth and efficiency gains, despite higher R&D investment.
Operating margin recorded a value of 43.5% (vs. 38.1% YoY), reflecting improved operating leverage and cost discipline.
Net profit rose to DKK 26.5bn (+32% YoY), as a result of higher revenue, better margins, and strong cost control across functions.
EPS (basic & diluted) rose to DKK 5.96 (vs. DKK 4.50 in Q2 2024), with growth in net income and lower average share count contributed to EPS expansion.

Novo Nordisk revised its full-year 2025 expectations to reflect a more measured outlook following Q2 results. The company now anticipates sales growth of 8% to 14% at constant exchange rates (CER), revised downward from the previous range of 13% to 21%, with reported growth expected to be approximately 3 percentage points lower. Similarly, operating profit growth is projected between 10% and 16% at CER, compared to the earlier forecast of 16% to 24%, also with reported growth about 5 percentage points lower. Net financial items are now expected to reflect a positive impact of around DKK 1.6bn, up from DKK 0.9bn previously, due to favorable currency and investment effects. Other expectations remain unchanged, with the effective tax rate estimated between 21% and 23%, capital expenditures around DKK 65bn, and depreciation, amortisation and impairment losses projected at DKK 17bn. Notably, the forecast for free cash flow has been revised down to between DKK 35bn and DKK 45bn, compared to the prior guidance of DKK 56bn to DKK 66bn, largely due to timing of business development and increased investment activity. Despite the more conservative financial outlook, management remains focused on maintaining long-term strategic momentum across its metabolic and rare disease portfolios.

Novo Nordisk stock experienced a significant post-earnings rebound, rising by +8.7% after a sharp -5.36% decline on the day of its Q2 2025 report, likely driven by technical correction dynamics and a deeply oversold RSI that had dropped below 30. Despite this short-term recovery, the stock remains in a steep downtrend, having fallen approximately -50.76% year-to-date. The recent bounce follows one of the most aggressive single-day selloffs in recent memory for the stock, with a staggering -23% loss in a single session just days ago. Both price action and technical indicators suggest that although a bottoming attempt may be underway, sentiment remains fragile and long-term bearish pressure continues to weigh heavily on the stock.